Volcanic Eruptions
Research group: professor Andy Woods
The Problem
Estimating the rate of a volcanic eruption in real time is difficult, but may be crucial for the safety of the people in the region, as well as for aviation safety.
Work Needed
Models are needed that enable us to estimate the eruption rate in real time, using data that is acquired remotely.
Our Work
We have developed a hierarchy of models which analyse the shape, trajectory and size of a volcanic plume, and use this information to quantify the eruption rate in real time.

Time evolution of the shape and size of a volcanic plume at a fixed distance downwind from the vent (from Mingotti and Woods 2024)
Estimating the properties of a volcanic eruption in real time is difficult; however, the shape of the ash plume rising from a volcanic vent can be recorded continuously during an eruption. Over the years, we have developed a hierarchy of models that describe the shape, trajectory and size of the plume and relate them to the eruption rate. The models have been validated using small-scale, analogue laboratory experiments.
We have used these models to analyse high-resolution videos of volcanic plumes, captured during the eruptions. Combining advanced image processing of the volcanic plume videos with the insight from the laboratory experiments, we have estimated how the eruption rate changed over time during the eruption.

Comparing the properties of a full-scale volcanic plume and a small-scale laboratory plume (from Mingotti and Woods 2024)
Publications
Woitischek, J., and Mingotti, N., and Edmonds, M., and Woods, A. W. (2021) On the use of plume models to estimate the flux in volcanic gas plumes. Nature Communications 12:2719
Newland, E. L., and Mingotti, N., and Woods, A.W. (2022). Dynamics of deep‑submarine volcanic eruptions. Scientific Reports 12:3276
Mingotti, N., and Woods, A. W. (2024). Video-based measurements of the entrainment, speed and mass flux in a wind-blown eruption column. Communications Earth and Environment 5:237